Case Studies in Predictive Modeling


DTC Readiness

A Case Study for Producing a More Effective Advertising Spend


A fast growing pharma company was launching a new brand and was beginning their DTC advertising campaign by market in the USA.  Alpha 1C was initially hired to measure the effectiveness of their advertising efforts.

Our Solution:
  • After determining that their current advertising plan was delivering very poor results, we recommended a more strategic approach to selecting which markets were actually ready to receive DTC advertising
  • Working closely with the brand team, Alpha 1C combed through all their existing market level data which included; managed care, patient affordability, HH income, media cost, generic usage, patient density, market size, disease prevalence, sales data, HCP training data and more
  • Given the magnitude of available data to be analyzed, we recommended building a predictive model to help determine “DTC Readiness”.   This model predicted which media markets would be most likely to produce the best ROI results for the brand
  • The framework of the model allowed the company to update the inputs to the model on the fly to adjust for rapidly changing market conditions
  • The model was delivered utilizing an easy to use interactive graphical interface and was updated every month when new sales data was available


  • The model was broadly used as a strategic planning and budgeting tool throughout the organization, from the CEO down to the more junior personnel
  • The model predicted which markets would be ready for DTC advertising by quarter into the future
  • The brand team relied on the model to help plan their marketing and advertising campaigns by market by quarter.  This allowed them to properly budget based on the specific media costs in each market
  • Usage of the model became ubiquitous and a “best practice” for the company and drove a 40% increase in market level results vs. their previous approach
  • Based on the success of the DTC readiness model, the brand team asked for a “companion sales tool” which could be used by the sales team to find their most impactful HCP’s


  • The Alpha 1C team built and delivered the model in less than two months and then updated the model on a monthly basis thereafter